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This Stock Market Boom is Different

Executive Summary This stock market boom is different. It is founded not on the growth of prosperity but on sustained and growing monetary repression finding expression so far in a trend rise of ‘hedge premiums’.   These, in turn, have fed the frenzy of ‘there is no alternative’ (TINA).   Pandemic stock […]

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MARKETS LOOK BEYOND THE ARMED TRUCE TO PEACE: How Pandemic has changed the currency outlook

Executive Summary   Main Article Big government wages economic equivalent of world war   Armed truces, new enemy offensives and the final peace   Pandemic and war test liberty and democracy   Optimism in market-;ace about truce and peace   Wall Street celebrates war profits and monopoly power   Lessons […]

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From the Avoidable Pandemic and Crash to the Avoidable Greatest Peacetime Inflation

Executive Summary   Main Article               We invite all readers to visit our related website:   www.macrohedgeadvisors.com   to access this report in full and on a complimentary basis.   Let us know if we can help you with this access in any way.   Best regards, […]

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SUPPLY SHOCK: This time is not different for economic impact of COVID-19

Executive Summary   Main Article Preparing for the illusions of the summer rebound   Phase one and two of supply shock   Beyond supply shock to the laboratory of history   Fitting COVID-19 into the supply shock model   Predicting the business cycle peak   Two profound influences of the […]

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Disinflation, Fang + and Gold: nothing new in how this asset inflation will end

Executive Summary Examining for forces of disinflation is crucial to determining how and when the present long monetary inflation will run into asset deflation and recession; and whether a great goods and services inflation will ultimately emerge.   A study of nineteenth century US history and Dutch 17th century history […]

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New Decade: new inflation challenges

Executive Summary Symptoms of monetary inflation – both in goods and asset markets – are becoming more serious, as we enter the 2020s. There are no grounds for complacency, based on narratives spun by central bankers or by finance professionals.    The central bankers tell us (via their giant propaganda […]

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The menace of high US inflation: despite monetary regime dysfunction, Milton Friedman’s diagnosis still holds

Executive Summary Fed Chief Powell is hinting at tolerance of somewhat higher inflation in 2020, as justified by inflation undershooting its target, previously. Reported inflation may well rise early next year and beyond until further growth cycle slowdown sets in, and recessionary forces strengthen. Before that, any growth cycle upturn […]

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THE SUPERIOR RETURNS FROM MONETARY PESSIMISM 2002-2020

Executive Summary The powerful climb of the S&P 500 since the business cycle trough of 2009 and the last growth cycle trough of 2015/16, together with absence of recession, has made many investors resistant to pessimism.   Yet monetary pessimism, correctly formulated, has in fact been the basis of far […]

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La Commedia (US-China trade war) e Finita: Austrian school economics update for 2020

Executive Summary The noise emanating from the comedy show entitled the “Xi-Trump trade war” has been at times deafening, in 2019 global markets.   The comedy is now be drawing to a close, with the likely signing of the first phase deal between Washington and Beijing.         […]

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GBP leap on unwind of no deal hedges now vulnerable to UK-EU FTA reality show: CAN$ election-time spurt also transitory

Executive Summary The seven per cent jump of the pound in a few days, based on a sudden violent change in hedging positions, is not without precedent.  The key question is whether fundamental forces have changed in a way likely to ratify that movement.   In the case of the pound […]

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